Part 33 of "Conflicts
President Trump's Administration"
2020-LATE OCTOBER TO EARLY NOVEMBER
Prediction of the Presidential election outcome.
Donald Trump and Joseph Biden.
Early data from the Presidential election.
Biden has accumulated 306 Electoral
College votes. This almost makes him certain
to be the 46th
PRESIDENT OF THE U.S.!
2020-OCT-23: Predictions about the final count of the votes on 2020-NOV-03 :
- Tony Burrman, writing for the Toronto Star, said: "... there has been a growing consensus among scholars of American history that this vote is the most important U.S. election in living memory." 10
- It is important to remember that the winner of the popular vote does not necessarily become president:
A Washington-Post-ABC News poll found that "Biden leads Trump among likely voters nationally 54% to 42%." 9 However, elections to the Presidency in the U.S. are not necessarily won by the candidate who receives the most public votes. The President is actually elected indirectly by an "Electoral College." For example: during the 2016 Presidential elections, Donald Trump won the election with 304 electoral votes, and Chelsea Clinton lost with 227. This was in spite of Clinton receiving almost 3 million more popular votes than Trump! 12 In the year 2000 election, George W. Bush won the Presidency even though he received a half million fewer popular votes than Al Gore!
A fundamental principle of most democracies is that each adult gets one vote, and that each vote has the same impact in electing the candidate. However, the U.S. is an rare -- perhaps a unique exception. Because of the Electoral College, the strength of each person's vote depends upon the the state in which they live.
2020-NOV-11: Early results of the election:
Election day in the U.S. was 2020-DEC-03.
By NOV-11, the votes of 63.9% of all Americans who are eligible to vote had been counted. This is the highest since 65.7% was reached in 1908. When counting is finished, the total count is expected to be about 66.5%. This is because some people vote by mail and it takes a few days for their form to be received and counted.29
Three days later, the votes in 46 out of 50 states had been counted. Joe Biden received more votes than Donald Trump. Also, Biden was leading Trump in each of the four remaining states where the votes were still being counted: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
But many presidential candidates in the past have received the most votes, and yet did not become President. Winning requires the candidate to receive 270 or more out of the total of 538 electoral college votes.
To become President, Joe Biden only needs to win the electoral college votes in any one of the remaining four states: (GA, NV, NC, or PA). Donald Trump's hurdle is much higher. He would have to win all four of these remaining states in order to remain president.13
As of the evening of NOV-05, Joe Biden had reached 264 electoral college votes. Donald Trump had received 214 votes. 14 Biden needed only six more electoral college votes to gain the Presidency.
Decision Desk HQ predicted via Twitter on NOV-06 at 08:50 AM EST that Biden will win the state of Pennsylvania with its 20 electoral college votes. At 11:50 AM, Biden was leading Trump by about 9,000 votes in that state. 15
Nevada had counted 66% of its votes by the early afternoon of NOV-07, and found that Joe Biden was winning with just under two-thirds of the vote. Joe Biden has been predicted to won the state. So even if Biden eventually does not win Pennsylvania, his almost certain win in Nevada will give him 6 electoral votes, cause him to reach 270 electoral college votes, and attain the Presidency.
As of 3:42 PM on NOV-06, Pennsylvania's vote differed by about 0.21% between Trump and Biden with Biden leading. If that remains under 0.5% when all the votes are counted, then the law requires a vote recount. But since Nevada is headed towards a Biden win, Pennsylvania's result will probably not matter.
Speaking to supporters in Wilmington, DE, Biden urged people to be patient while the votes are counted. He asked for an end to "partisan warfare" and mentioned that he has started to work on plans to reduce the spread of COVID-19. He predicted a decisive victory for himself and vice-presidential candidate Senator Kamala Harris, saying:
"The numbers tell us a clear and convincing story, we’re going to win this race. We’re on track to over 300 electoral college votes, and look at the national numbers, we’re going to win this race with a clear majority of the nation behind us. ... I know watching these vote tallies on TV moves very slow[ly], and as slow as it goes it can be numbing. But never forget, the tallies aren’t just numbers, they represent votes and voters, men and women who exercised their fundamental right to have their voice heard, and what’s becoming clear each hour is that a record number of Americans of all races, faiths, religions, chose change over more of the same. They’ve given us a mandate for action on COVID, the economy, climate change, systemic racism.
Democracy works. Your vote will be counted. I don’t care how hard people try to stop it, I will not let it happen. The people will be heard."
On NOV-06, Joe Biden discussed the COVID-19 pandemic, saying:
"Daily cases are skyrocketing. It is now believed that we could see as many as 200,000 cases in a single day. The death toll is approaching 240,000 lives lost to this virus. That’s 240,000 empty chairs at kitchen tables, and dining room tables all across America. We’ll never be able to measure all that pain and the loss, the suffering that so many families have experienced."
"On day one, we’re going to put our plan to control this virus into action. We can’t save any of the lives lost but we can save a lot of lives in the months ahead."
"We have to remember the purpose of our politics isn’t total, unrelenting, unending warfare. No. The purpose of our politics, the work of the nation, isn’t to fan the flames of conflict but to solve problems, to guarantee justice, to give everybody a fair shot, and to improve the lives of our people. We may be opponents — but we’re not enemies."
"We have to put the anger and the demonization 27 behind us. It’s time for us to come together as a nation and to heal. My responsibility as president will be to represent the whole nation and I want you to know that I'll work as hard for those who voted against me as those who voted for me. That’s the job; that’s the job." 16
Also on NOV-06, Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) said that Trump's:
"... allegations of large-scale fraud and theft of the election are just not substantiated. I'm not aware of any significant wrongdoing here." 19
Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to state that the election is being stolen from him. However, he did not provide any evidence to support his claim. 16
The Washington Examiner predicted that Biden is on a: "... path to win 306 Electoral College votes, same as Trump's 'landslide' victory in 2016." 28
2020-NOV-07: More results of the election:
During the morning of Saturday, NOV-07, Oliver Staley wrote an article for the Quartz Daily Brief, saying that Donald Trump's:
"... demands of unswerving fealty from GOP governors and administration officials, his eagerness to profit from his office, his embrace of outlandish conspiracy theories, his willingness to stoke division and conflict -- not to mention his 25,000 (and counting) lies or misleading claims -- all are evidence that he had the means, motive, and opportunity to hijack the election."
"There’s a lot of work that needs to be done, both to ensure US elections continue to be free and fair, and to make sure the nation’s chief executive can’t manipulate them." 17
Taegan Goddard, writing for his Political Wire, during the morning of Saturday, NOV-07, said:
"Saturday morning could yet bring decisive news: Pennsylvania could move out of recount territory if the margin widens, and Arizona and Nevada were expected to declare new votes. But whereas 24 hours earlier, all-night ballot counting had given Joseph R. Biden Jr. the lead in Georgia, the early hours of Saturday seemed comparatively sedate. Nothing was changing, and nobody was quite sure when it would." 17
The following information sources were used to prepare and update the above essay. The hyperlinks are not necessarily still active today.
- Melissa Quinn, "Nearly 500 ex-military, national security officials throw support behind Biden," CBS News, 2020-SEP-24, at: https://www.cbsnews.com/
- "Trump blasts ballots when asked about election aftermath: 'The ballots are a disaster'," Fox News, 2020-SEP-24, at: https://www.foxnews.com/
- "2020 Belarusian protests, Wikipedia, as on 2020-OCT-23, at: https://en.wikipedia.org/
- "Tuesday Night SmackDown: POTUS Edition," Emailing, 2020-SEP-30, at: https://www.morningbrew.com/.
- Aaron Blake, "5 takeaways from the first presidential debate", Washington Post, 2020-SEP 29, at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- John Wagner, et al., "Thursday presidential debate canceled; Trump appears on conservative media," The Washington Post, 2020-OCT-09, at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- XJohn Wagner, et al., "Election live updates: Debate commission says it will change structure to ensure more ‘orderly discussion’," Washington Post, 2020-SEP-30, at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Tamer Fakahany, "Trump says he and first lady tested positive for Coronavirus, joins growing list of infected leaders, adds another election volatility," AP Morning Wire, 2020-OCT-02. at: https://link.apnews.com/
- Scott Clement et al., "The Washington Post-ABC poll: Biden maintains lead nationally over Trump, Washington Post, 2020-OCT-11, at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Tony Burman, "Stain of the Trump era, on full display during presidential debate, could make life very complicated for President Joe Biden, Toronto Star, 2020-OCT-23, : https://www.thestar.com/
- J.D. Salant, ‘Winner of tonight’s debate is the mute button,’ and other observations from the second presidential debate," True Jersey, 2020-OCT-23, at: https://www.nj.com/
- Nate Cohn, "The Electoral College’s Real Problem: It’s Biased Toward the Big Battlegrounds," The New York Times, 2019-MAR-22, at: https://www.nytimes.com/
- John Whitesides & Joseph Ax,"Biden Takes Narrow Lead in Georgia, Putting White House in Reach," U.S. News, 2020-NOV-06, at: https://www.usnews.com/
- Madeline Roth, "US election electoral college votes tracker: Live updates," Independent.co.uk, 2020-NOV-05, at: https://www.independent.co.uk/
- Anon, Decision Desk HQ, 2020-NOV-6, at: https://twitter.com/
- Lisa Steacy, "Joe Biden predicts decisive presidential victory: 'The numbers tell us a clear and convincing story'," City News, 2020-NOV-06, at: https://montreal.citynews.ca/
- Sorry, I lost the link and was unable to find it again. This is the first time in over 20 years of working on this web site that this has happened.
- Taegan Goddard, "Vote Count Slows to a Crawl," Ted Goddard's Political Wire, 2020-NOV-07, at: https://politicalwire.com/
- Jeffery Martin, "Joe Biden Says He's Going to Win With a Mandate for Action on Racism, Climate and COVID," Microsoft News, 2020-NOV-07, at: https://www.msn.com/
- Richard Hall, "Pennsylvania election results: Joe Biden declared president after winning tipping point state," Independent, 2020-NOV-07, at: https://www.independent.co.uk/
- Dylan Stableford, et al., "Biden wins 2020 presidential election: Live coverage," Yahoo/Canada, 2020-NOV-07, at: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/
- Aubrey Allegretti, "US election results: Joe Biden says 'I'm honoured you've chosen me' as Donald Trump refuses to concede
- Deirdre Schsgreen, "If Trump still won't concede to Biden, he'll break more than a century of tradition," USA Today, 2020-NOV-07, at: https://www.usatoday.com/
- Sean Fine, "Trump campaign files lawsuit to block certification of Pennsylvania voting results," The Globe and Mail, 2020-NOV-10, at: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/
- Gabby Orr, "How Biden swung the religious vote," Microsoft News, 2020-NOV-11, at: https://www.msn.com/
- Kylie Atwood, "State Department is preventing Biden from accessing messages from foreign leaders," Microsoft News, 2020-NOV-11, at: https://www.msn.com/
- Biden's reference to "demonetization" is ambiguous. From the context of his words, he seems to mean "demonize." But the actual meaning of the term that he used is to remove a currency from use as legal tender.
- Tyler Van Dyke, "Biden on path to win 306 Electoral College votes, same as Trump's 'landslide' victory in 2016," Washington examiner, 2020-NOV-06, at: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/
- "2020 election had highest voter turnout in a century," The Week, 2020-NOV-12, at: https://theweek.com/
- Jennifer Rubin, "The election can’t be ‘stolen.’ But something worse is happening," The Washington Post, 2020-NOV-11, at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Chris Kahn, "Nearly 80% of Americans say Biden won White House, ignoring Trump's refusal to concede: Reuters/Ipsos poll," Reuters, 2020-NOV-10, at: https://www.reuters.com/
- Jessi Hellmann, "Biden set to roll back Trump rules on abortion," The Hill, 2020-NOV-13, at: https://thehill.com/
- Catherine Larkin, "Biden Wins Georgia, Trump Wins North Carolina, Networks Project," Microsoft Network, 2020-NOV-13, at: https://www.msn.com/
- Claudia Deane & Jouh Gramlich, "2020 election reveals two broad voting coalitions fundamentally at odds," Pew Research Center, 2020-NOV-06, at: https://www.pewresearch.org/
- Ashraf Khalil And Kevin Freking, "Trump supporters morning protests turn into violent clashes," Canadian Press, 2020-NOV-15, at: https://www.msn.com/
- "Donald Trump's estranged niece says uncle is 'deliberately' refusing to concede election," Microsoft News, 2020-NOV-15, at: https://www.msn.com/
- Soeren Kern, "Was the US Election Stolen," Gatestone Institute, 2020-NOV-17, at: https://mail.google.com/
- "Judges appear increasingly frustrated with Trump's legal claims about election," Microsoft News, 2020-NOV-16, at: https://www.msn.com/
This topic continues in the next article, with information on the Presidential election
Copyright © 2020 by Ontario
Consultants on Religious Tolerance
Latest update: 2020-NOV-20
Author: B.A. Robinson